Single Asset Constant Geometric Brownian Motion Baseline Stress Testing With Seasonality
This study models a distressed bank under Central
Bank of Nigeria (CBN) regulatory pressure where baseline valuation decays
exponentially with multiplicative seasonality effect. Three analytical paths
and theoretical expected means were simulated showing up and down horizontal
trend lines instead of exponential growth. Sensitivity analysis for volatility
and drift shows both plots look alike with up and down horizontal movements,
unlike growth banks where volatility dominates. Results show distressed pattern
trapped sideways oscillation with slow decay, indicating that both growth rate
and volatility cannot rescue the bank under regulatory overhang. Implication is
range-bound trading rather than buy-and-hold. This system is valuable for
regulators and risk managers.
