“NOT AI BUT SUPERINTELLIGENCE”: The Next Turn of Events An Integrative Review of Pathways, Prospects, Risks and Governance of Artificial Superintelligence, with Implications for Developing Economies
For more than seven
decades, the dominant ambition of computing research has been artificial
intelligence (AI): machines that perform tasks which ordinarily require human
intelligence. The rapid progress of deep learning, transformer-based foundation
models and large-scale reinforcement learning since 2012 has moved that
ambition from laboratory curiosity to everyday infrastructure. This paper
argues that the next technological turn of events is not "more AI" in
the incremental sense, but the possible emergence of superintelligence (ASI):
systems whose cognitive performance greatly exceeds that of the best human
minds across virtually all domains of interest. Using an integrative literature
review of peer-reviewed scholarship, expert surveys, technical reports and
policy instruments published between 1950 and 2025, the paper (i) clarifies the
conceptual distinction between narrow AI, artificial general intelligence (AGI)
and superintelligence; (ii) traces the intellectual history of the idea from
Turing and Good to contemporary scaling research; (iii) analyses six plausible
pathways to superintelligence, namely compute and data scaling, algorithmic and
architectural innovation, recursive self-improvement, whole brain emulation,
biological and neural-interface enhancement, and networked collective
intelligence; (iv) evaluates the evidence and counter-evidence on timelines and
"takeoff" speeds; (v) maps the transformative opportunities and the
systemic and existential risks; and (vi) reviews emerging governance responses
at global, continental and national levels, with particular attention to Africa
and Nigeria. The review finds that superintelligence differs from present-day
AI not merely in degree but in kind: it shifts the central problem from
building capable tools to aligning and governing autonomous agents more capable
than their designers. The paper proposes a Superintelligence Readiness and
Governance Framework (SRGF) built on five interlocking layers: foundational
capacity, technical alignment and safety, institutional governance,
socio-economic transition, and international coordination. It concludes with
recommendations for researchers, policymakers, industry and developing
economies, and identifies priority areas for future research.
